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Me and Ambah, We Won!

It's a testament to the depth of Survivor that my wife and I spent hours discussing the permutations of last night's Survivor: All Stars final episode.

Specifically, silly Jenna of the original Survivor, who chose to betray beloved Rupert in order to go to the final three. Not to get all sabermetric on you, but clearly Jenna's choice -- although it seemed logical at the time -- was logically unsound. Playing it "day to day" may sound logical, but it's really like playing chess while only looking a single move ahead.

Jenna had the choice of siding with Rupert, voting for Rob and presumably forcing a drawing of lots to see who would get eliminated, or betraying Rupert and voting him out. She chose betrayal. But consider the odds: if Jenna betrays the Big Ol' Bear, she's got a one in three chance of winning immunity and going to the final two. (Because we already know that lovebirds Rob and Amber are going to pick one another if one of them wins immunity.)

Now, consider if Jenna goes for the Paschal English Memorial Sack o' Rocks instead. Assuming that she and Rupert remain allied (seems pretty solid since Rupert's as loyal as a dog), that gives her a two-out-of-three chance of going to the final two. (Although I'll grant you, Rupert would win a vote against any of the final four.)

So basically, Jenna opted for a 100% chance at a 33% chance, rather than a 67% chance at a 67% chance. Do the math. She made the wrong choice, even before you consider that as someone who had never won a single challenge, she had almost no chance to win that final immunity challenge and reach the final two.

In any event, Rob and Amber, sittin' in a tree, counting their M-O-N-E-E. Maybe he can buy a new Red Sox hat now.


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